The shockwaves of the Middle East war reach the Caribbean as food prices soar

Highlighting the import status of many Caribbean islands, UN researchers on Wednesday warned that the war – and in particular the Strait of Hormuz shipping and energy crisis – had triggered one of the most significant global trade shocks since the COVID19 pandemic and Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Low-income households will be the most impacted analysis partnering with the UN World Food Program (WFP), after crude oil prices soared to more than $114 a barrel earlier this year, along with increased shipping costs, insurance costs and shipping delays.

“Even with a fragile ceasefire, volatility remains high – and the Caribbean, which relies heavily on imported food, is feeling the pinch quickly.” the report’s authors maintained.

At the same time, experts warn that there is a the chance is 61 percent the El Niño climate phenomenon which will occur in mid-2026; Historically in the Caribbean region, El Niño has brought heat waves, drought and crop failures to countries experiencing crisis.

Briefly about this crisis:

• Fuel shocks impact food prices: High oil and shipping costs have led to rising prices for imported food, electricity and transport, putting pressure on household budgets across the Caribbean.
• Heavy dependence on imports: The region relies heavily on food imports, making it vulnerable to global price spikes and supply chain disruptions.
• Drought concerns increase: UN climate agency WMO says that there is a 60 percent change in El Niño weather events This year. A strong El Niño could cause severe drought in countries including Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies.
• Food insecurity is already high: Prices have shot up 55 to 60 percent since 2018leaving many families experiencing hardship, with food insecurity still well above pre-pandemic levels.
• Recurring disasters: Recurring climate disasters, including Hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa last October have left households without the ability to cope or resist new shocks. This means that small price increases or crop losses can cause many households to experience a crisis.

Warning signs

In Belize, authorities are bracing for drought, while farmers across the Caribbean region fear reduced yields due to falling rainfall and rising temperatures.

For low-income families, the impact can be dire, as food and transportation make up a large portion of their expenses. This means that even a small price increase will have a negative impact and force many people to reduce food portions, or switch to cheaper, less nutritious food, or fall into debt.

Small farmers and fishermen are also at risk of rising operational costs and worsening weather conditions.

Experts say the next few months will be crucial. Without immediate action to stabilize markets, support incomes and protect food production, the region could plunge into a deeper crisis.

Even if global conditions improve, the adverse impacts will likely continue – leaving the Caribbean trapped in a cycle of rising prices, climate shocks and increasing food insecurity.