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Daud Olatunji
A retired naval professor and officer, Commodore Kunle Olawunmi, has warned that the Yoruba people must not tie their political future and security to the outcome of the 2027 presidential election or the political fortunes of President Bola Tinubu.
Olawunmi, in a statement made available to PLATFORM TIMES on Monday, maintained that whether Tinubu wins or loses the 2027 presidential election, the result should not be construed as a victory or defeat for the Yoruba people.
He argued that Tinubu’s administration should be judged as a government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and not a collective political project of the Yoruba.
The professor, who made the proposal while reflecting on Nigeria’s political future, warned that the growing trend of ethnicizing Tinubu’s presidency could expose millions of Yoruba to collective guilt for decisions they neither made nor controlled.
According to him, if Tinubu wins re-election, his administration’s policies and shortcomings could be increasingly portrayed as collective Yoruba actions, while his defeat could equally trigger resentment from political interests who perceive his presidency as an ethnic achievement.
“Tinubu is a Yoruba man, but he is not the Yoruba nation,” Olawunmi said.
He said the Yoruba must neither defend policies they consider harmful simply because the president shares their ancestry, nor accept responsibility for decisions over which ordinary Yoruba citizens have no control.
Olawunmi identified federal appointments as one of the issues that could further deepen the ethnicization of the administration.
He acknowledged that the Presidency rejected accusations that his appointments violated the constitutional principle of federal character, but said that the political consequences of the dispute go beyond the legality of individual appointments.
According to him, the danger is that benefits perceived as benefiting a small political network could ultimately be interpreted as benefits benefiting the entire Yoruba race.
“Private advantage for a few can therefore become a public danger for millions of people,” he warned.
He similarly argued that economic policies such as the removal of oil subsidies and foreign exchange reforms should not be considered Yoruba policies simply because the president is Yoruba.
While acknowledging that the reforms were presented as measures to address structural weaknesses in the economy, Olawunmi said their implementation had subjected households and businesses to considerable economic pressure.
Whatever the merits or flaws of the policies, he said, they remain decisions of the federal government and should be evaluated based on their impact rather than ethnic identity.
Olawunmi warned against turning the 2027 presidential election into a referendum on the safety or political security of the Yoruba only when a Yoruba occupies the presidency.
He said such a situation would highlight the weakness of Nigeria’s federal structure and deepen ethnic divisions.
“If Yoruba political security increases when a Yoruba candidate wins and decreases when he loses, then the federation has failed to create equality of citizenship,” he said.
“The presidency is temporary. The nation is intergenerational.”
The retired naval officer also criticized some aspects of Nigeria’s federal agreement, arguing that the structure often makes it difficult to establish clear lines of responsibility.
He cited recurring blame placed on state governments for insecurity despite dominant federal control over police, and questioned a revenue-sharing system that he said could weaken the link between taxation, performance and accountability.
He argued that such an agreement allows different levels of government to shift responsibility whenever citizens demand explanations for failures.
Beyond the 2027 elections, Olawunmi has advocated for a serious and structured dialogue on Yoruba self-determination.
He argued that the Yoruba constitute a historic national community with a shared linguistic and cultural heritage, a land base, large urban centers, educational institutions, trade networks, and a long history of organized political authority.
He, however, stressed that the request should not be interpreted as a call for Yoruba superiority or hostility towards other Nigerians.
Rather, he described self-determination as a matter of responsible government and the right of a people to determine their own political future through democratic consensus.
“A sovereign Yoruba state would place the ultimate political responsibility closer to the people who will have to live with its consequences,” he said.
Such an agreement, he said, could give the Yoruba greater control over security, economic planning, education, public administration and other areas of governance.
Olawunmi also cited the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election as a lesson for the Yoruba and Nigeria as a whole.
He noted that the election, won by the late MKO Abiola, demonstrated that a Yoruba candidate could garner broad support across ethnic, regional and religious lines.
However, according to him, the annulment also demonstrates that electoral victory alone cannot guarantee the protection of the political interests of a people where the institutions are weak.
He warned that the experience should not be used to promote permanent hostility against other ethnic groups, but should encourage the Yoruba to reconsider whether participation in Nigeria’s federal political contest alone is sufficient to protect their long-term interests.
Olawunmi proposed the establishment of a representative Yoruba self-determination congress involving the six southwestern states, Yoruba communities outside the region and different segments of society.
He listed women, youths, traditional rulers, professionals, organized workers, businesses, religious bodies and non-Yoruba residents of the region among those who should be represented.
He said such body must operate in a transparent manner and should not become the property of any individual or organization claiming permanent authority to speak on behalf of the Yoruba.
He also called for an authorized referendum on the constitutional future of the Yoruba people, insisting that such exercise must have clearly defined rules regarding the electorate, territory, voting process and dispute resolution.
According to him, support for independence should not be determined by political rallies, social media campaigns or unverified opinion polls, but by a verifiable democratic mandate.
The professor acknowledged that the Constitution of Nigeria currently declares the federation indivisible and does not provide a simple procedure for unilateral secession.
He further noted that while international law recognizes self-determination, it does not automatically grant every national group the unrestricted right to secede from an existing sovereign state.
He therefore supported a peaceful, democratic and negotiated process.
Olawunmi urged supporters of self-determination to engage the National Assembly, state Houses of Assembly and other Nigerians, stressing that constitutional amendment under Section 9 of the Constitution would require extensive political and legislative commitment.
He also supported agreements that ensure continued trade, transit, security cooperation and protection for citizens living on both sides of any potential political border.
The retired naval officer stressed that any Yoruba self-determination movement must be non-violent.
He rejected the creation of an armed wing, ethnic intimidation or attacks against Nigerians living in Yorubaland.
“A movement that demands freedom must demonstrate in its conduct that it can be trusted with power,” he said.
He urged Yoruba politicians seeking elective office to clearly state their positions on self-determination and, where they support it, to pursue the goal through legitimate political and legislative channels.
Olawunmi stressed that his intervention should not be interpreted either as a campaign to save Tinubu politically or as an attempt to punish him.
He said the Yoruba issue must be considered beyond Tinubu and the 2027 elections.
According to him, Tinubu will eventually leave office after losing an election or completing his constitutional mandate, while the Yoruba people will remain.
He therefore urged Yoruba leaders to stop building their collective political strategy around accessing the presidency.
He also called on Tinubu to recognize the danger of allowing federal power to become identified with his personal or ethnic political network.
The President, he said, should uphold federal character, protect competitive democracy, and treat the peaceful defense of self-determination as a political issue requiring dialogue rather than repression.
Olawunmi warned that suppressing the request could strengthen, rather than eliminate, the argument for a different political settlement.
The professor said the Yoruba should not wait for another political crisis before starting the process of organizing around their political future.
He argued that the goal should be pursued through consensus, law, negotiation and peaceful coexistence.
“The time to establish a democratic mandate is before the next crisis, while dialogue remains possible,” he said.
Olawunmi said the Yoruba could pursue self-determination without embracing hostility towards Nigeria or other nationalities, stressing that any future agreement should be based on mutual respect, continued friendship and economic cooperation.
He concluded that the future of the Yoruba should not depend on who occupies Aso Rock.
“Tinubu will one day leave office, whether through elections or the completion of his constitutional mandate. The Yoruba people will remain,” he said.
“Their future must be guaranteed by institutions and democratic consensus, not by the uncertain protection of a presidency.”
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