Oyedele reacts as Fitch revises Nigeria’s outlook positive as oil production hits OPEC target, inflation seen at 15.4%

Oyedele reacts as Fitch revises Nigeria’s outlook positive as oil production hits OPEC target, inflation seen at 15.4%

By Ekpang Ralph

Abuja (Core Reporters) Nigeria’s crude oil production has met the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day by May 2026, while inflation is expected to moderate to 15.4% this year, according to the federal government.

The development comes as Fitch Ratings revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from Stable to Positive, while affirming the country’s ‘B’ rating, citing sustained economic reforms, stronger external reserves and easing inflationary pressures.

Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister for Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed this in a statement released on Saturday, describing the improving outlook as a reflection of growing confidence in Nigeria’s economic reform agenda under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The government attributed the improving outlook partly to rising domestic refining capacity, which it says is reducing imports of refined petroleum products and demand for foreign currency.

On public finances, Fitch expects Nigeria’s fiscal reforms to increase non-oil revenues as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP). The agency expects overall government debt to average 32% of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the “B” rating median of 56%.

Fitch also recognized the depth of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalization exercise, highlighting that many banks have achieved capital adequacy ratios above 20%, exceeding minimum regulatory requirements.

The government also noted that all three major international credit rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026.

According to the statement, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-‘ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook to Positive in August. Separately, FTSE Russell has restored Nigeria to frontier market status, effective September 21, 2026.

Oyedele said the government views Fitch’s latest rating as recognition of reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, unification of the exchange rate and the introduction of key fiscal reforms.

He said the administration’s medium-term ambition is to put Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade status, adding that the reforms aim to reduce the country’s cost of capital, attract private investment and create jobs.

However, the government recognized the ongoing economic challenges highlighted by Fitch, including inflation that remained above comparable country levels, low government revenues relative to the size of the economy, and high interest costs that consume a substantial share of government revenues.

To support the improvement of Nigeria’s credit profile, the Government is committed to maintaining a transparent and market-reflective exchange rate regime, fully implementing new tax laws, improving spending efficiency and budget execution, and strengthening transparent debt management.

Other priorities include accelerating economic diversification, supporting non-oil growth, and translating macroeconomic stability into broader prosperity through food security, job creation, human development and support for small businesses.

The Ministry of Finance said Fitch guidance indicates that further positive rating action could follow sustained disinflation, continued implementation of reforms, stronger external reserves and greater non-oil revenue mobilization.

Oyedele said the government remains committed to implementing reforms to strengthen Nigeria’s economic resilience and improve living standards.